Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test

Marketing researchers often assume that innovation diffusion is affected by social contagion. However, there is increasing skepticism about the importance of contagion and, as has long been known, S-shaped diffusion curves can also result from heterogeneity in the propensity to adopt. To gain insight into the role of these two different—though not mutually exclusive—mechanisms, we present substantive conjectures about conditions under which contagion and heterogeneity are more pronounced, and test these conjectures using a meta-analysis of the q/p ratio in applications of the Bass diffusion model. We find that the q/p ratio is positively associated with the Gini index of income inequality in a country, supporting the heterogeneity-in-thresholds interpretation. We also find evidence that q/p varies as predicted by the G/SG diffusion model, but the evidence vanishes once we control for national culture. As to contagion, we find that the q/p ratio varies systematically with the four Hofstede dimensions of national culture, and for three of them in a pattern theoretically consistent with the social contagion interpretation. Furthermore, we find that products with competing standards have a higher q/p ratio, which is again consistent with the social contagion interpretation. Finally, we find effects of national culture only for products without competing standards, suggesting that technological effects and culturally mediated social contagion effects may not operate independently from each other

Studying Paths of Participation in Viral Diffusion Process

Authors propose a conceptual model of participation in viral diffusion process composed of four stages: awareness, infection, engagement and action. To verify the model it has been applied and studied in the virtual social chat environment settings. The study investigates the behavioral paths of actions that reflect the stages of participation in the diffusion and presents shortcuts, that lead to the final action, i.e. the attendance in a virtual event. The results show that the participation in each stage of the process increases the probability of reaching the final action. Nevertheless, the majority of users involved in the virtual event did not go through each stage of the process but followed the shortcuts. That suggests that the viral diffusion process is not necessarily a linear sequence of human actions but rather a dynamic system.Comment: In proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Social Informatics, SocInfo 201

Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154436/1/jiec12748-sup-0001-SuppMat.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154436/2/jiec12748_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154436/3/jiec12748.pd

Diffusion of Subsidized ACTs in Accredited Drug Shops in Tanzania: Determinants of Stocking and Characteristics of Early and Late Adopters.

Many households in sub-Saharan Africa utilize the private sector as a primary source of treatment for malaria episodes. Expanding access to effective treatment in private drug shops may help reduce incidence of severe disease and mortality. This research leveraged a longitudinal survey of stocking of subsidized artemisinin combination therapies (ACTs), an effective anti-malarial, in Accredited Drug Dispensing Outlets (ADDOs) in two regions of Tanzania. This provided a unique opportunity to explore shop and market level determinants of product diffusion in a developing country retail market. 356 ADDOs in the Rukwa and Mtwara regions of Tanzania were surveyed at seven points between Feb 2011 and May 2012. Shop level audits were used to measure the availability of subsidized ACTs at each shop. Data on market and shop level factors were collected during the survey and also extracted from GIS layers. Regression and network based methodologies were used. Shops classified as early and late adopters, following Rogers' model of product diffusion, were compared. The Bass model of product diffusion was applied to determine whether shops stocked ACTs out of a need to imitate market competitors or a desire to satisfy customer needs. Following the introduction of a subsidy for ACTs, stocking increased from 12% to nearly 80% over the seven survey rounds. Stocking was influenced by higher numbers of proximal shops and clinics, larger customer traffic and the presence of a licensed pharmacist. Early adopters were characterized by a larger percentage of customers seeking care for malaria, a larger catchment and sourcing from specific wholesalers/suppliers. The Bass model of product diffusion indicated that shops were adopting products in response to competitor behavior, rather than customer demand. Decisions to stock new pharmaceutical products in Tanzanian ADDOs are influenced by a combination of factors related to both market competition and customer demand, but are particularly influenced by the behavior of competing shops. Efforts to expand access to new pharmaceutical products in developing country markets could benefit from initial targeting of high profile shops in competitive markets and wholesale suppliers to encourage faster product diffusion across all drug retailers

Modeling the adoption of innovations in the presence of geographic and media influences

While there has been much work examining the affects of social network structure on innovation adoption, models to date have lacked important features such as meta-populations reflecting real geography or influence from mass media forces. In this article, we show these are features crucial to producing more accurate predictions of a social contagion and technology adoption at the city level. Using data from the adoption of the popular micro-blogging platform, Twitter, we present a model of adoption on a network that places friendships in real geographic space and exposes individuals to mass media influence. We show that homopholy both amongst individuals with similar propensities to adopt a technology and geographic location are critical to reproduce features of real spatiotemporal adoption. Furthermore, we estimate that mass media was responsible for increasing Twitter's user base two to four fold. To reflect this strength, we extend traditional contagion models to include an endogenous mass media agent that responds to those adopting an innovation as well as influencing agents to adopt themselves

Clinical evaluation of marketed orthodontic products: are researchers behind the times? A meta-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The role of marketing and industry in the treatment decisions of orthodontists has received increasing attention in recent years with clinical research typically undertaken subsequent to established use of these devices and often failing to confirm the promise of manufacturers' claims. This meta-epidemiological study was undertaken to assess the proportion of clinical trials in orthodontics evaluating commercially marketed products and to evaluate the direction of the results of these studies. METHODS: Electronic searching was undertaken to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published over a 5-year period (1 January 2012 to 31 December 2016). Data obtained included the type of marketed intervention, direction of effect and declaration of both industry sponsorship and conflict of interest. RESULTS: Eighty-four RCTs published in 23 scientific journals were included with the highest percentage in the American Journal of Dentofacial Orthopedics (AJO-DO) (23.8%), followed by the European Journal of Orthodontics (EJO) (14.3%), Journal of Orthodontics (JO) (10.7%) and Angle Orthodontist (AO) (10.7%). Overall, 45% (38/84) of clinical trials assessed involved analysis of marketed products after their introduction. Interventions to improve oral health or circumvent the risk of iatrogenic damage, such as white spot lesions, were most commonly assessed (15.8%), with the relative merits of non-surgical adjuncts (14.1%) and other orthodontic auxiliaries (13.1%) also frequently evaluated. In 44% of RCTs, a positive effect of the marketed intervention was not reported. Industry sponsorship of the research was declared in 9.5% RCTs. No significant associations between the direction of the effect and both declaration of industry sponsorship (p = 0.56) and conflict of interest (p = 0.96) were detected. Moreover, for marketed and non-marketed products, no significant associations for both declaration of industry sponsorship (p = 0.44) and conflict of interest (p = 0.28) were found. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of orthodontic clinical trials over the past 5 years involve analysis of marketed products after their introduction. The results highlight a potential source of waste in orthodontic research emanating from existing approaches to licensing and marketing of orthodontic products

Factors affecting innovation and imitation of ICT in the agrifood sector

Diffusion of innovations has gained a lot of attention and concerns different scientific fields. Many studies, which examine the determining factors of technological innovations in the agricultural and agrifood sector, have been conducted using the widely used Technology Accepted Model, for a random sample of farmers or firms engaged in agricultural sector. In the present study, a holistic examination of the determining factors that affect the propensity of firms to innovate or imitate, is conducted. The diffusion of ICT tools of firms which are engaged in the NACE 02/03 as well as in the NACE 10/11 classifications for 49 heterogeneous national markets is examined, using the Bass model. The innovation parameter is positively associated with rural income, female employment, export activity and education of farmers, while the imitation parameter is increased in countries whose societies are characterized by uncertainty avoidance